A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
